Private Ideas vs Public Sharing Simulator (Vibe Coded)

Private Ideas vs Public Sharing

Compare a world where creators keep ideas private with one where ideas are shared and recursively inspire descendants. Every spawned idea can itself spawn more ideas until the year ends or the safety cap is reached.

Simulation

People generating ideas

Original ideas/person/year

Length in months

Monte Carlo runs

Random seed

Safety cap/run

Idea value

Average original value ($)

Variation between ideas

65%

Higher values produce a few unusually valuable ideas.

Child value relative to parent

65%

Public improvement bonus

25%

Private scenario

Chance creator develops an idea

30%

Creator captures realized value

70%

Public-sharing scenario

Chance any shared idea is developed

55%

Average child ideas per shared idea

0.65

Children recursively get their own chances to spawn.

Average delay before children appear

2 mo

Original creator capture

12%

Ancestor royalty from descendants

2%

Only developed public ideas may spawn children. When off, exposure alone can inspire descendants.

This is an exploratory model, not a forecast. Results depend entirely on the assumptions selected.

Cumulative idea count by month

Private originals Public originals + descendants

Cumulative realized value by month

Private Public sharing

Average results by generation

Generation	Ideas created	Developed	Realized value	Average value/idea

How this simulation works

Original ideas arrive throughout the selected period. The private scenario permits only the originator to develop each original idea. In the public scenario, every shared idea can be developed, improved, and produce a Poisson-distributed number of child ideas after a delay. Those children repeat the same process.

A reproduction rate below 1 still increases cumulative idea count. It means each later generation is smaller on average, not that no additional ideas are created. Time limits and development/spawning rules determine how much of the theoretical chain appears within the simulated year.